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Rayan

Rayan Stats

Vasco da Gama Rio de Janeiro

Country

Brazil

Position

Right Winger

Age

19 y/o

Height

0 cm

Foot

Left

League Stats

Overview

Analyse

Salary

Rankings

History

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Overview

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Rayan Stats & News

Rayan wins 46 aerial duels this season in his overall play - ranking 31 for total aerial duels won in the league. See Full Ariel duels won Ranking

Rayan scores 3 headed goals from his total of 14 - placing him 10 for headed goals this season. See Full Goals by head Ranking

Rayan contests 89 aerial duels, winning 46 and losing 43 throughout the season - ranking 26 for total aerial duels contested in the competition. See Full Ariel duels total Ranking

Key Stats

Type

Total

Per 90 min

Filter

Overall

Right Winger

Center Forward

Attacking Midfielder

Metric	Value
Goals ⓘ Goal	14
Assists ⓘ Creating goals, playing the final pass.	3
Shots on Goal	64
Progressive carries (PrgC) ⓘ Number of successful offensive dribblings with bypassed opponents by a player or a team	59
Successful passes to pitch position opponent box ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass IN the ‘opponent box’ area to another area of the field.	27

Strengths & Weaknesses

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Offense

Defense

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Per position

aggregated

90 minutes

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Strengths & Weaknesses	Value
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How Rayan ranks compared to other players

Filters

Overall

Right Winger

Center Forward

Attacking Midfielder

Goals

Kaio Jorge

Pablo Vegetti

Rayan

Reinaldo

See Full Goals Ranking

Assists

Giorgian de Arrascaeta

#96

Matheus Bidu

#97

Rayan

#98

Jose Luis Rodriguez

See Full Assists Ranking

Shots on Goal

Kaio Jorge

Rayan

Hulk

Vitor Roque

See Full Shots on Goal Ranking

Progressive carries (PrgC)

Paulo Henrique

180

#134

Willian Machado

#135

Rayan

#136

Artur

See Full Progressive carries (PrgC) Ranking

Shot Map Rayan

___ - ___

__.__.____ (Round _)

All Rayan`s shots on this match:

Type of event -

Minute -

xG for this event -

Play the whole passing chain

Rayan Recent Performance & Form

Heat Map

About Rayan`s heatmap

Explore heat map of Rayan to gain insights into his positioning on the pitch. Identify his primary areas of presence and uncover the specific regions he tends to cover during matches.

Low movement Medium movement High movement

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Advanced Stats & Analytics

Type

Total

Per 90 min

Metric	Value
Passing accuracy %	70.69
Succesful dribbles	523
Ball losses % per game	29.96
Pre-assists ⓘ The pass before the assist	0
Successful passes to pitch position opponent box ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass IN the ‘opponent box’ area to another area of the field.	27
Successful passes to pitch position final third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass IN the ‘final third’ area to another area of the field.	147
Most fouls	27

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Vasco da Gama Rio de Janeiro

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News

04 Feb

3 January Signings the Data Says Will Pay Off Big

Think January means overpaying for transfers? Think again. Discover the hidden gems of the window - players who could change the Premier League landscape for a fraction of the cost. Can you afford not to know these names?

See the whole article

Expected Threat & Involvement Analysis

Rayan is generating an Expected Threat of 555.98 - ranking 63 in this metric, measuring how much danger they're creating when they get the ball, showing how likely they are to start moves that lead to scoring chances and put defenses under pressure. See Full Expected Threat Ranking

Rayan is facing an Expected Threat against of 40.1 - placing them 118 in terms of defensive attention received, revealing how much attacking pressure opponents are putting on them, depicting how well they're handling being targeted by the other team and staying effective under close marking. See Full Expected Threat Against Ranking

Rayan is ranking 16.39 for involvement - sitting at 103 in overall activity levels, visualizing how active they are compared to other players, demonstrating how often they're touching the ball and influencing the game through their movement and participation. See Full Most Involved Player Ranking Per Position Ranking

Key Preformance Indicators

Type

Total

Per 90 min

Metric	Value
Expected Threat ⓘ Expected Threat (xT) measures how much a team’s chance of scoring changes when the ball is moved from one location on the pitch to another. The pitch is divided into zones, each with a value reflecting the probability of scoring if the ball is in that zone. Every on-ball action (pass, carry, dribble, sometimes reception) gets a value equal to the increase (or decrease) in the team’s scoring probability when the ball moves from the start zone to the end zone. Summing these changes across a match or season gives a player’s or team’s total xT contributed by their actions.	555.98
Expected Threat Against ⓘ Expected Threat Against (often written xTA or xT against) applies the same idea from the defensive point of view. It measures how much the opponent’s chance of scoring changes during their possessions against your team. When the opposition progresses the ball into more dangerous zones, the xTA you concede increases; when you prevent progression or force the ball back into safer areas, you reduce xTA conceded. Aggregated over time, xTA describes how much threat a team allows through opponent ball progression, and at player level it can be used to evaluate how well defenders and midfielders limit dangerous ball movement.	40.1
Most Involved Player	16.39
Xg Ratio ⓘ The ratio of the Xg value in relation to the goals scored. The lower the value, the better the goalscorer.	0.52
Assists ⓘ Creating goals, playing the final pass.	3

Ratings and Scores

Expected Threat

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #63 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

556

Expected Threat Against

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #118 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Most Involved Player

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #103 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

1vs1 Index

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #29 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

1vs1 index defensive

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #233 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

1vs1 Index offensive

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #29 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Attacking Threat

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #90 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Initiate dangerous attacks

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Ranks #133 in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

107

Compare Rayan`s Performance

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Performance Trends

Select a trend category to explore metrics with significant changes, stable performance, or areas of concern.

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Shooting Data & xG Analysis

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Goals

Shot at goal number

Xg total

Assists

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Progressive carries (PrgC)

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Block

___ - ___

__.__.____ (Round _)

Type of event -

Minute -

xG for this event -

Play the whole passing chain

Comprehensive Stats & Advanced Metrics

This is the most comprehensive, up-to-date football player stat list on the market, providing raw data and advanced metrics to deliver the full scouting report on Rayan

Type

Total

Per 90 min

Groups

Scores

Goals & Assists

Passing and Ball progression

Ball contacts & phases of play

Ball losses

Ball regains

Defensive

Dribbles

Elimination actions & Pitch

Salary Stats

Scores Rayan

1vs1 Index ⓘ To enhance your comprehension of our performance index, we will elucidate some of its values. However, it's important to note that we cannot disclose all of them. Here are a few example: succesful passes, ball losses, goals, assists, expected goals, critical ball losses, initiating dangerous attacks, clearances, ball regains in different parts of the pitch,	68.81
1vs1 index defensive ⓘ The 1vs1 Performance offensive Index is a sophisticated algorithm designed to assess the performance of individual players, comprising a set of 11 values.	61.79
1vs1 Index offensive ⓘ The 1vs1 Performance defensive Index is a sophisticated algorithm designed to assess the performance of individual players, comprising a set of 10 values. To enhance your comprehension of our performance index, we will elucidate some of its values. However, it's important to note that we cannot disclose all of them. Here are few examples: critical ball losses, clearances, ball regains in different parts of the pitch, etc	68.84
Offensive interventions	7.1
Attacking Threat	69.3

Goals & Assists Rayan

Average scorer points per game	0.63
Goals ⓘ Goal	14
Assists ⓘ Creating goals, playing the final pass.	3
Goals by long distance shot ⓘ Goal after a shot from more than 22 metres	1
Goals by head ⓘ Goals by head	3
Penalty goals ⓘ Penalty goals	2
Goals by freekick ⓘ Goals by freekick	0
Goals by foot	9
Shots on Goal	64
Shots on goal / Goal Ratio ⓘ Describes the ratio of shots on goal and the number of goals. The ideal value would be 100% - every shot is a goal.	14.29
Chances created ⓘ An action (pass, cross, dribble) that results in a shot on goal in the subsequent action	9
Big chances ⓘ A goal action (shot, header, free kick) that has an Xg value greater than 25%.	4
Pre-assists ⓘ The pass before the assist	0

Passing and Ball progression Rayan

Progressive passes (PrgP) ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions by a player or a team (dribblings, passes, crosses)	176
Progressive passes received (PrgR) ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions in which a player is found as a receiver (dribblings, passes, crosses) and opponent players have been bypassed	491
Total successful passes by low pass ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. in this case a diagonal pass.	403
Total successful passes by diagonal pass ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case a diagonal pass.	5
Total successful passes by clearance by foot ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. in this case a low pass. In this case a clearance.	8
Total successful passes by throw-ins ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case after a throw in.	4
Total successful passes by corners ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case after a corner.	0
Total successful passes from own box ⓘ Pass that reaches the team-mate. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘own box’ to another area of the field.	9
Total successful passes from 1st third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the area ‘1st third of the field’ to another area of the field.	59
Total successful passes from 2nd third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘middle third’ area to another area of the field.	247
Total successful passes from final third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘last third’ area to another area of the field.	167
Total successful passes from opponents box ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate.	9
Total successful passes from right wing ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate.	193
Total successful passes from right half space ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here played FROM right half space	124
Total successful passes from centre ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the center.	89
Total successful passes from left half space ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the left half space	37
Total successful passes from left wing ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the left wing.	56
Initiate dangerous attacks ⓘ Initiating dangerous attacks with the ball, play in advanced areas, penetrating the opposition defence. A deadly pass from a midfield to a the striker, who is then free in front of the goal, bypasses a certain amount of defenders. 78% of the teams with a better result in this metric won their games.	107
Succesful passes in % by low pass ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. in this case a diagonal pass.	84.31
Succesful passes in % by diagonal pass ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case a diagonal pass.	71.43
Succesful passes in % by throw-ins ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case after a throw in.	100
Succesful passes in % by corners ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. In this case after a corner.	0
Succesful passes in % by clearance by foot ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. in this case a low pass. In this case a clearance.	28.57
Succesful passes in % from own box ⓘ Pass that reaches the team-mate. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘own box’ to another area of the field.	23.68
Succesful passes in % from 1st third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the area ‘1st third of the field’ to another area of the field.	70.24
Succesful passes in % from 2nd third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘middle third’ area to another area of the field.	77.19
Succesful passes in % from final third ⓘ Pass that reaches the other player. Here specifically: A pass FROM the ‘last third’ area to another area of the field.	71.37
Succesful passes in % from opponents box ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate.	36
Succesful passes in % from left wing ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the left half space	80
Succesful passes in % from left half space ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the left wing.	78.72
Succesful passes in % from centre ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here from the center.	64.03
Succesful passes in % from right half space ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate.	76.54
Succesful passes in % from right wing ⓘ Pass that reaches the teammate. Here played FROM right half space	66.1
Passing accuracy %	70.69

Ball contacts & phases of play Rayan

Offensive touches ⓘ Any touch on the ball where a teammate has previously been on the ball is called an offensive touch	742
Offensive touches in phase Ball possession ⓘ Any touch on the ball where a teammate has previously been on the ball is called an offensive touch. In this case in the phase of ball possession of own team.	399
Offensive touches in phase Attacking Transition ⓘ Any touch on the ball where a teammate has previously been on the ball is called an offensive touch. In this case in the phase "attacking transition".	185
Offensive touches in phase Set Pieces ⓘ Any touch on the ball where a teammate has previously been on the ball is called an offensive touch. In this case in the opponents box.	59
Offensive touches in phase Second Balls ⓘ Any touch on the ball where a teammate has previously been on the ball is called an offensive touch. In this case in the phase "second ball"	114
Defensive touches in phase Out of Possession ⓘ Ball contacts in defensive play (when opposition team has been in possession).	70
Defensive touches in phase Defensive Transition ⓘ Ball contacts in defensive play (when opposition team has been in possession).	40
Defensive touches in phase Set Pieces ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. Hier nach einer Standard Aktion.	39
Defensive touches in phase Second ball ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. In this case after a "second ball".	46
Total touches in phase Set Pieces	98
Total touches in phase Second ball	160

Ball losses Rayan

Critical ball losses ⓘ Number of turnovers in possession in which 4 or more teammates are removed from the game (not goal side of the ball). These ball losses are particularly serious because there are few teammates behind the ball, therefore increasing the risk of conceding a goal.	11
Ball losses by low passes ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here by low pass	75
Ball losses by diagonal pass ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here by diagonal pass.	2
Ball losses by clearance by foot ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here by clearance.	20
Ball losses by headers ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here by headers.	60
Ball losses by throw-in ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here after a throw in.	0
Ball losses by corners ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent or out of play. Here by corners	0
Ball losses in own box ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent. Here specifically: the pass that is intercepted was played FROM the area ‘own penalty area’	29
Ball losses in first third ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent. Here specifically: the pass that is intercepted was played FROM the ‘first third of the pitch’ area	25
Ball losses in second third ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent. Here specifically: the pass that is intercepted was played FROM the ‘centre third of the pitch’ area	73
Ball losses in final third ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent. Here specifically: the pass that is intercepted was played FROM the space ‘last third of the pitch’	67
Ball losses in opponent box ⓘ Pass that goes to the opponent. Here specifically: the pass that is intercepted was played FROM the area ‘opponent's box’	16
Ball losses total	210

Ball regains Rayan

Ball regains total ⓘ Number of offensive captures of the ball. Conquering the ball after the opponent's pass.	192
Ball regains in own box ⓘ Number of offensive ball recoveries. Here specifically: From which area was the pass played, which was then intercepted -> here own box	9
Ball regains frist third of pitch ⓘ Number of offensive ball recoveries. Here specifically: From which area was the pass played, which was then intercepted -> here frist third of pitch	60
Ball regains second third of pitch ⓘ Number of offensive ball recoveries. Here specifically: IN which area was the pass intercepted that was played by the opponent -> here middle third	65
Ball regains in final third of pitch ⓘ Number of offensive ball recoveries. Here specifically: IN which area was the pass intercepted that was played by the opponent -> here last third	45
Ball regains in opponents box ⓘ Number of offensive ball recoveries. Here specifically: IN which area was the pass intercepted that was played by the opponent -> here the opponent's box	17

Defensive Rayan

Ground duels won ⓘ Won ground duel.	63
Ground duels lost ⓘ Lost ground duel.	84
Ariel duels won ⓘ Won aerial duel.	46
Ariel duels lost ⓘ Lost aerial duel.	43
Interception ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. In this case an interception.	61
Ground duel ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. In this case a ground duel.	25
Header defensive ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. In this case a defensive header.	37
Block ⓘ Any touch on the ball where an opposition player has previously been on the ball is called a defensive touch. In this case a blocked ball.	31
Tackles	147
Clearances by head	89
Clearances by foot	30
Ground duels total	147
Ground duels won %	42.86
Ground duels lost %	57.14
Ariel duels total	89
Ariel duels won %	51.69
Ariel duels lost %	48.31
Defensive stability ⓘ The ability to defend well	29.9

Dribbles Rayan

Progressive carries (PrgC) ⓘ Number of successful offensive dribblings with bypassed opponents by a player or a team	59
Succesful dribbles	523

Elimination actions & Pitch Rayan

Number of offensive actions from own box ⓘ The number of opponents a player or team has outplayed from their own box.	9
Number of offensive actions from 1st part of pitch ⓘ The number of opponents a player or team has outplayed FROM the first third.	21
Number of offensive actions from 2nd part of pitch ⓘ The number of opponents a player or team has outplayed FROM the middle third	75
Number of offensive actions from 3rd part of pitch ⓘ The number of opponents a player or team has outplayed from the final third	66
Number of offensive actions in 1st part of pitch ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically IN which space this pass or dribble was played -> 1st third of the pitch	17
Number of offensive actions in 2nd part of pitch ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically IN which space this pass or dribble was played -> middle third of the pitch	52
Number of offensive actions in 3rd part of pitch ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically IN which space this pass or dribble was played -> final third of the pitch	74
Number of offensive actions into the opponent's box ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically IN which space this pass or dribble was played -> into the box	33
Number of offensive actions from the right wing ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically OUT of which space this pass or dribble was played -> right wing side of the pitch	79
Number of offensive actions from half-right ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically OUT of which space this pass or dribble was played -> right half space of the pitch	45
Number of offensive actions from the centre ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically OUT of which space this pass or dribble was played -> center lane of the pitch	29
Number of offensive actions from half-left ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically OUT of which space this pass or dribble was played -> left half space of the pitch	8
Number of offensive actions from the left wing ⓘ Number of actions with which opponents could be bypassed (dribbling, passing, crossing, standard). Here specifically OUT of which space this pass or dribble was played -> left wing of the pitch	18
Number of offensive receptions in 1st part of pitch ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions in which a player is found as a receiver in the first third of the pitch and opponent players have been bypassed	50
Number of offensive receptions in 2nd part of pitch ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions in which a player is found as a receiver in the middle third of the pitch and opponent players have been bypassed	248
Number of offensive receptions in 3rd part of pitch ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions in which a player is found as a receiver in the last third of the pitch and opponent players have been bypassed	169
Number of offensive receptions in opponent's box ⓘ Number of successful offensive actions in which a player is found as a receiver in the opponents box and opponent players have been bypassed	34

xG Rayan

Xg total ⓘ Shot-based xG tell how high the scoring probability of a goal shot is, taking into account many parameters. At player and team level, the shot-based xG indicate how many goals would have been statistically expected for the player or team on the basis of the goals scored. The comparison with the goals actually scored allows a statement to be made about the finishing efficiency. The same statement can be made about the defence by comparing the opponent's xG with the goals conceded.	7.27
Xg long distance ⓘ Shot-based xG tell how high the scoring probability of a goal shot is, taking into account many parameters. Here based on a long range shot (more than 22 Meters)	0.69
Xg with head ⓘ Shot-based xG tell how high the scoring probability of a goal shot is, taking into account many parameters. Here based on a header.	1.41
Xg with penalites ⓘ Shot-based xG tell how high the scoring probability of a goal shot is, taking into account many parameters. Here based on a penalty	1.56
Xg Ratio ⓘ The ratio of the Xg value in relation to the goals scored. The lower the value, the better the goalscorer.	0.52
Open play Xg ⓘ Open play Xg value	7.2
Set piece Xg ⓘ Set piece Xg	1.62
Xg average per shot ⓘ Xg average per shot	0.09
Xg average per game ⓘ Xg average per game	0.27
Xg with foot ⓘ Xg with foot	5.78
xG over/under ⓘ Goals minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	6.73
Goals minus Xg header ⓘ Header goals minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	1.59
Non-penalty xG (npxG) ⓘ Penalty goals minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	5.71
Goals minus Xg free-kick ⓘ Free kick goals minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	-0.06
Goals minus Xg long distance shot ⓘ Long distance goals (more than 22 meters) minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	0.31
Goals minus Xg short distance shot ⓘ Short distance goals (less than 10 meters)minus Xg value. The higher the value, the better. If the value is high, the player has scored many goals from chances with a low Xg. A negative value indicates that the player is a not good a scoring goals.	0.63

Salary Stats Rayan

Goals per million salary	0
Goals against per million salary ⓘ Goals conceded divided by salary	0
Initiate dangerous attacks per million salary ⓘ Number of dangerous attacks divided by salary	0
Xg per million salary	0
Assists per million salary	0
Scorer points per million salary	0
Percentage from avg salary ⓘ Difference in per cent in relation to the average salary.	0

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Rayan’s Career Salary Earnings

Performance vs. Salary: Rayan`s Ranking

Rayan: Is He Overpaid? Salary vs. Performance

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Rayan: Where Does He Rank? A Breakdown of His Benchmark, Average, and Weak Stats

Benchmark Stats

Very Good Stats

Average Stats

Weak Stats

Personal Rankings

Historical Insight

Performance per Previous Seasons

Expected Threat & Involvement Analysis

Key Preformance Indicators

Ratings and Scores

Compare Rayan`s Performance

Performance Trends

Shooting Data & xG Analysis

Comprehensive Stats & Advanced Metrics

Scores Rayan

Goals & Assists Rayan

Passing and Ball progression Rayan

Ball contacts & phases of play Rayan

Ball losses Rayan

Ball regains Rayan

Defensive Rayan

Dribbles Rayan

Elimination actions & Pitch Rayan

xG Rayan

Salary Stats Rayan

Scout Pro: Intelligence-Driven Scouting

Effectiveness Build up

Ball regains total

Goals

Assists

Xg total

Successful passes to final third

Successful passes to opponent box

Initiate dangerous attacks

1vs1 index defensive

1vs1 Index offensive

Defensive stability

Expected Threat